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Priority directions of tax policy change in the information sphere

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Category: Contens №3 2020

Last Updated on 13 September 2020

Published on 02 July 2020

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Authors:

O. Lagovska, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Prof., Professor of the Department of Accounting and Auditing, orcid.org/0000-0001-9517-0499, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine

V. Ilin, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Prof., Professor of the Department of Accounting and Auditing, orcid.org/0000-0002-4223-1865, University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Irpin, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

M. Kotsupatriy, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Prof., Professor of the Accounting and Taxation Department, orcid.org/0000-0001-5528-3210, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine

M. Ishchenko, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Prof., Professor of the Department of Accounting, Taxation, Public Administration and Administration, orcid.org/0000-0002-6820-9455, Kryvyi Rih National University, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine

L. Verbivska, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Associate Professor of the Department of Business, Trade and Stock Exchange Operations, orcid.org/0000-0002-2768-9157, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2020, (3): 183-190

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-3/183

повний текст / full article

Abstract:

Purpose. To substantiate the proposals about priority directions of tax policy change in the information sphere for various sectors of economy, in particular, mining industry. For development of proposals to analyze the current state of the information sphere, to identify and evaluate the possible risks from changes in taxation, to forecast tax rates using modern mathematical methods and algorithms, to set the limit for increasing the tax burden on experts in the information sector.

Methodology. The improved method of modeling interval time series was used for prognostication of volume of tax receipts from experts in the information sector and the volume of export of information services. The parameter of volume of export matches the requirements for applying the specified method. This parameter applies to flow variables. The use of the interval series method gives an opportunity to get sums of their levels, which is convenient for solving the task of forecasting. As the model of the so-called mathematical apparatus of forecasting, “Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity” – UARUG (GARCH) was chosen, the Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling (ARMS) was used. The use of ARMS makes provisions for the use of Hastings-Metropolis and adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) methods. The obtained results were approximated to construct analytical equations of predictive parameters over time.

Findings. A detailed analysis of the situation in the field of information services for various sectors of the economy, in particular, mining industry, was conducted. The risks of increasing the tax burden beyond certain boundary values were identified. The calculations of the forecast values of the volume of export of services and the amount of tax burden on the information sector up to 2025 were carried out. This made it possible to scientifically explain possible changes in the tax policy in the information sector. Suggestions for priority directions of tax policy change in the information sector for various sectors of economy, in particular, mining industry, were given.

Originality. The specific proposals for priority directions of tax policy change in the information sphere for various sectors of economy are developed and substantiated. The limit of possible increase in taxation on experts in the information sector was grounded and the value of this limit was calculated for the first time. The improved interval time series modeling method was used to forecast the volume of the single social security tax of the future periods and the volume of export of IT services for the first time. In contrast to traditional methods, which rely on existing forecasts, the polynomial approach reducing the relative error is proposed.

Practical value. The detailed recommendations on tax policy change in the field of information services for various sectors of the economy, in particular, the mining industry are given. The need for a change in tax policy, for individual entrepreneurs in particular, is pointed out. It is noted that the proposed changes should be implemented gradually, as transparently as possible and on the condition of careful monitoring in the industry. The analytically presented forecasting makes their practical application convenient.

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