Forecasting water bodies hydrological parameters using singular spectrum analysis

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Authors:

L.M. Arkhipova, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, State Higher Educational Institution “Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas”, Head of the Department of Tourism, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine.

S.V. Pernerovska, State Higher Educational Institution “Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas”, postgraduate student, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine.

Abstract:

Purpose. Detection and investigation of forecasting trends change in water objects intended to establish relations and interdependencies between the different characteristics, taking into account the meteorological elements, natural river behavior, and man-made load, which determine hydroecological risks. The work aims to broaden and deepen the knowledge of the relationship of hydrological characteristics, indicators of the quality of the water and climatic characteristics.

Methodology. For the study we have selected singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a method of time series analysis that is based on the dynamic modification of the method of principal component transformation of one-dimensional time series into multi-row and subsequent application to the resulting multivariate time series of principal components. The method combines elements of classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, multivariate geometry, dynamical systems and signal processing. To assess the predictive trends of water bodies’ qualitative changes we have developed a comprehensive assessment of surface water quality that includes water sampling, testing, further generalization and obtaining comprehensive index of potential quality.

Findings. The results of prediction using singular spectrum analysis have revealed a clear positive trend in environmental factors’ quantitative changes over the past forty years: temperature, rainfall, and their uneven distribution; hydrological parameters: water flow, volume flow in water bodies, increasing irregularity of annual distribution of stream flow, which causes an increase in the aggregate number of catastrophic floods of national scale. The results of the research have confirmed the global warming trends manifestation at the local level of the upper reaches of the Dniester river basin. The scientific method of assessment of the quality component of environmental and technical safety of hydro ecosystems allowed us to establish long-term trends and patterns of temporal distribution of quality component of hydroecological risk for the upper reaches of the Dniester River within the Carpathian region, which allows us to estimate the process of man-made load interaction with surface hydroecosystem.

Originality. For the first time we have developed a scientific method for assessment of the qualitative component of hydroecological hidroecosystem risks, including studies of complex index of potential quality. Based on the data analysis of long-term observations and its temporal patterns we have established long-term trends in temporal distribution of qualitative and quantitative component of hydroecological risks for the upper reaches of the Dniester River within the Carpathian region, which allows us to estimate the process of man-made load interaction with surface hydroecosystem.

Practical value. The research is to improve the method of assessment of the hidroecosystem state and hydroecological risk level for pre-implementation stages of man-made objects in the process of developing strategies for river basin control in the creation and implementation of integrated regional development programs of water management, environmental policy. This will define the current and projected level of quantitative and qualitative surveying component of risk that is the basis for the development of measures to stabilize and improve the environment and management of natural and man-made security hidroecosystem.

References:

1. Архипова Л.М. Природно-техногенна безпека гідроекосистем: монографія / Архипова Л.М. – Івано-Франківськ: Видавництво ІФНТУНГ, 2011. – 366 с.

Arkhipova, L.M. (2011), Pryrodno-tekhnohenna bezpeka hidroekosystem [Natural and Technogenic Ecosystems Safety], Monograph, IFNTUOG Publishers, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine.

2. Лук’янець О.І. Приклад порушення однорідності рядів максимальних рівнів води /О.І. Лук’янець/ Гідрологія, гідрохімія і гідроекологія: Наук. зб. КНУ – 2006 – Т. 11. – 220 с.

 

Lukyanets, O.I. (2006), “Example of dehomogenization of series of maximum water levels”, Hidrologiia, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiia, vol.11, KNU.

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ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

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