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Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability

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Parent Category: 2024

Category: Content №5 2024

Created on 29 October 2024

Last Updated on 29 October 2024

Published on 30 November -0001

Written by I. Strelchenko, V. Smiesova, S. Kozhushko, I. Arakelova

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Authors:

I.Strelchenko, orcid.org/0000-0001-5179-4304, Alfred Nobel University, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Smiesova*, orcid.org/0000-0002-0444-4659, Dnipro University of Technology, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

S.Kozhushko, orcid.org/0000-0002-6383-5182, Alfred Nobel University, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

I.Arakelova, orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-793X, Mariupol State University, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2024, (5): 170 - 176

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-5/170

Abstract:

Purpose. To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration.

Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis were used.

Findings. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and consequences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb-Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population and economic growth is established.

Originality. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration.

Practical value. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the consequences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore industry and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.

Keywords: Cobb-Douglas production function, forced migration, employment of the population, refugees, sustainable development

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