Comprehensive assessment of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic
/ 0
- Details
- Category: Content №6 2020
- Last Updated on 22 December 2020
- Published on 30 November -0001
- Hits: 2487
Authors:
S.Simak, orcid.org/0000-0003-1251-7288, V.I.Vernadsky Taurida National University, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Yu.Davydiuk, orcid.org/0000-0003-4179-9675, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
N.Burdeina, orcid.org/0000-0002-3070-1866, Odesa Military Academy, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: nadine-burd@ukr.net
M.Budiaiev, orcid.org/0000-0003-3783-5020, Kyiv national economic university named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
O.Taran, orcid.org/0000-0001-6226-4907, Kharkiv National Agrarian University named after V.V.Dokuchaev, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
K.Ingram, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2020, (6): 168 - 173
https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-6/168
Abstract:
Purpose. To analyse and summarize some aspects of the negative impact of coronavirus infection Covid-19 and to provide a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the pandemic on the world economy and the economy of Ukraine in particular.
Methodology. The study used a comprehensive analytical assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the world economy, based on reports and prognostic assessments of well-known scientists and experts, international financial and credit rating organizations, as well as personal observations of the authors.
Findings. The obtained results testify the aggravation of the economic situation in the world and in Ukraine in particular. In a short time (six months), world GDP decreased by almost 4%, and in such major countries as the United States by 9.1%, the EU by 14.4%, Ukraine by 11.4%. This is evidenced by declining industrial production, declining productivity, bankruptcy and liquidation of small, micro and individual entrepreneur enterprises, declining household incomes and rising unemployment. There is a situation when governments do not focus on the development of the internal market, but increase the amount of credit resources taken to cover the balance sheet deficit. Incentives implemented in most countries around the world to support the business environment and the population show that this level reaches 1025% of GDP. At the same time, the current fund in Ukraine was only 1.5%, which is clearly insufficient. The introduction of strict restrictions in Ukraine in 5 stages has led to the closure of many small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, which reduces revenues to budgets at various levels. Thus, the spheres most affected by quarantine measures were arts, sports, entertainment and recreation (almost 80% drop in income), research and development (73%) forestry and logging (67%), the least affected financial and insurance activities (only 5.4%). Thus, the projections developed by leading international and credit rating institutions indicate the disappointing consequences for the world economy by the end of 2020, after which a gradual thawing will begin. However, it is unclear how the economic recovery will continue if quarantine measures continue. This may be evidence of erroneous forecasts and the deepening recession in the world economy.
Originality. We propose to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the main indicators of the state and development of the economic situation using the following indicators: annual GDP growth, ratio of public debt to GDP, unemployment, consumer price index, annual inflation, industrial production, business confidence and consumer confidence index. The set of these indicators reflects the trend of economic development in a crisis situation.
Practical value. This technique can be used by specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, research institutions and institutes, individual scientists as a basis for monitoring the situation in the country and regions during the economic crisis.
Keywords: world economy, economy of Ukraine, quarantine measures, Covid-19 pandemic, economic consequences, recession
References:
1. Saakov, V. (2020). The NBU expects GDP to fall by five percent in 2020 due to the coronavirus. Deutsche Welle. Retrieved from https://p.dw.com/p/3bJVL.
2. Dumanska, M. (2020). Frances GDP fell a record amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Deutsche Welle. Retrieved from https://p.dw.com/p/3bb4M.
3. Ukrinform (2020). Consequences of quarantine for the economy of Ukraine and ways to overcome them. Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-presshall/3034153-naslidki-karantinu-dla-ekonomiki-ukraini-ta-slahi-ihnogo-podolanna.html.
4. Mironenko-Shulgan, O. (2020). Small business in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: legal regulation of financial support by the state. Retrieved from https://unba.org.ua/publications/print/5792-malij-biznes-v-umovah-pandemii-covid-19-pravove-regulyuvannya-finansovoi-pidtrimki-derzhavoyu.html.
5. Nitsenko, V. (2020). Mismanagement in Ukraine. Problems of Management in the 21st Century, 15(1), 4-8. https://doi.org/10.33225/pmc/20.15.04.
6. Zalizko, V., Nowak, D., & Kukhta, P. (2020). Economic security of Ukraine: innovative concept of strengthening in the context of COVID-19. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, (4), 152-157. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-4/152.
7. The U.S. Economic Recession Grows Deeper and Bleaker (July 31, 2020). Stratfor Enterprises. Retrieved from https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-economic-recession-grows-deeper-and-bleaker.
8. Hawken, A., & Brown, A. (2020). Budget LIVE: Rishi Sunak unveils 30bn coronavirus package and stamp duty hike for overseas buyers. The Sun. Retrieved from https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/11144022/budget-2020-uk-live-rishi-sunak-coronavirus/.
9. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2020). On the statement of the Procedure for use of means of fund of fight against an acute respiratory illness of COVID-19 caused by a coronavirus of SARS-CoV-2, and its consequences: Resolution; Procedure from 22.04.2020 No. 302. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/302-2020-%D0%BF#Text.
10. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2020). COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Disease Foundation for SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and Its Consequences. Retrieved from https://mof.gov.ua/uk/data_and_analytics-433.
11. Macroeconomic statistics by country (2020). Retrieved from https://take-profit.org/statistics/.
12. Bankruptcy in numbers: worse for coronacrisis (2020). Retrieved from https://vn.strichka.com/article/106747183.
13. Centre for Aviation (2020). COVID-19. By the end of May, most world airlines will be bankrupt. Retrieved from https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/covid-19-by-the-end-of-may-most-world-airlines-will-be-bankrupt-517512.
14. 51% of enterprises in quarantine conditions are able to last only 1 month survey (2020). Ekonomichna pravda. Retrieved from https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2020/04/2/658865/.
15. Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on the economy and society post-pandemic development. Consensus forecast No. 52. Retrieved from https://www.me.gov.ua/Documents/Download?id=2b0d350d-a9e5-449a-95cf-fe6cdeaff070.
16. Reuters (2020). Global economic recovery may take five years, World Bank chief economist says. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-worldbank/global-economic-recovery-may-take-five-years-world-bank-chief-economist-says-idUSKBN26816L?il=0.
17. Government portal (2020). Prime Minister Denis Shmygal presented a phased plan to lift restrictions. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/premyer-ministr-denis-shmigal-predstaviv-poetapnij-plan-znyattya-obmezhen.
18. Olejarz, T., Nitsenko, V., Chukurna, O., & Mykhailova,M. (2018). Evaluation of factors influencing labour performance of machine-building enterprises in mining industry. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, (1), 154-162. https://doi.org/10.29202/nvngu/2018-1/2.
19. LIGABusinessInform (2020). The IMF has downgraded the forecast for Ukraines GDP to fall in 2020. Retrieved from https://ua-news.liga.net/economics/news/mvf-pogirshiv-prognoz-padinnya-vvp-ukraini-v-2020-rotsi.
20. Ukrinform (2020). The economic decline in Ukraine is not critical EBRD. Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ru/rubric-economy/3105891-padenie-ekonomiki-v-ukraine-ne-avlaetsa-kriticeskim-ebrr.html.
21. Ukrinform (2020). In post-quarantine economic realities, a synergy between the government and the central bank is needed - an expert. Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3034948-minreintegracii-zaava-okupantiv-pro-povnu-bojovu-gotovnist-gra-v-informacijnomu-poli.html.
22. Ukrinform (2020). Experts report a reduction in investment in Ukraines economy. Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3034670-eksperti-povidomlaut-pro-skorocenna-investicij-v-ekonomiku-ukraini.html.
Newer news items:
- Determining conditions of using draglines in single-tier internal dump formation - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Obtaining kinetic characteristics of combustion of the coke from solid biofuels - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Influence of particle geometry on the efficiency of operation of quasistatic and inertial disintegrators - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Dynamic analysis of thin laminated viscoelastic structures under elevated temperature using finite element modeling - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Sodium silicate solute foaming in a flat slot-type capillary under microwave radiation influence - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Effect of alloying heat-resistant packing coatings on their tribotechnical, physical and mechanical properties - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Forecasting of wear of pads of modernized brake system devices of bogies of freight cars using ARIMA models - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Assessment of geotechnical properties of Draa El Mizane highway tunnel (Algeria) - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Energy-efficient predictive control for field-orientation induction machine drives - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Integrated system of modular power supply and multilevel control of brushless dc motor for electric vehicles - 22/12/2020 00:15
Older news items:
- Determining conditions of using draglines in single-tier internal dump formation - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Obtaining kinetic characteristics of combustion of the coke from solid biofuels - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Influence of particle geometry on the efficiency of operation of quasistatic and inertial disintegrators - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Dynamic analysis of thin laminated viscoelastic structures under elevated temperature using finite element modeling - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Sodium silicate solute foaming in a flat slot-type capillary under microwave radiation influence - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Effect of alloying heat-resistant packing coatings on their tribotechnical, physical and mechanical properties - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Forecasting of wear of pads of modernized brake system devices of bogies of freight cars using ARIMA models - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Assessment of geotechnical properties of Draa El Mizane highway tunnel (Algeria) - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Energy-efficient predictive control for field-orientation induction machine drives - 22/12/2020 00:15
- Integrated system of modular power supply and multilevel control of brushless dc motor for electric vehicles - 22/12/2020 00:15
Archive