System approach to forecasting and preparedness of response to emergency situations
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- Category: Content №6 2020
- Last Updated on 22 December 2020
- Published on 30 November -0001
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Authors:
H.V.Ivanets, orcid.org/0000-0002-4906-5265, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, -mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
S.A.Horielyshev, orcid.org/0000-0003-1689-0901, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
D.S.Baulin, orcid.org/0000-0002-7082-6954, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: baulinds1966@ukr.net
M.H.Ivanets, orcid.org/0000-0002-3106-7633, Ivan Kozhedub Kharkiv National University of Air Force, Kharkiv, Ukraine, -mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
O.O.Novykova, orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-5210, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2020, (6): 109 - 114
https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-6/109
Abstract:
Purpose. Development of system approach and formation of complex methods for joint forecasting of emergency situations (ES) and ensuring the preparedness of the response of civil protection units in real conditions.
Methodology. When developing methods for predicting ES and possible damage as result of them, polynomial-regression method with varied order, weighted least square method, probabilistic-statistical method, methods of time series and mathematical statistics were used. When developing models of resource provision of preparedness for emergency response, methods of regression analysis, time series and mathematical statistics were used. The principle of forecasting the costs of funds for the elimination of the consequences of ES is based on the fact that they are determined by the costs of eliminating man-made and natural emergencies. When choosing models for predicting technical support and the number of personnel required for emergency response, we proceeded from the fact that they should be determined not only by the predicted number of ES, but also by their nature. The model for optimization of territorial structures of civil protection (CP) is based on the principle of compliance of the number of regional structures with the level of threats in these territories. Methods of mathematical statistics and mathematical modeling were used in the study on the effectiveness of the application of system approach to joint forecasting and provision of preparedness for emergency response.
Findings. Methods for forecasting the processes of emergencies and damage as a result of them, models for optimizing territorial structures of civil protection, taking into account the state of man-made natural hazards in the regions of the state, forecasting technical support and the number of personnel to eliminate possible emergencies.
Originality. Asystem approach to solving the problem of joint forecasting of ES and maintaining the preparedness of response of civil protection units in order to minimize the consequences of these situations is proposed.
Practical value. The proposed set of methods and models is the foundation for substantiating organizational and technical measures to prevent and adequately respond to emergencies both on national scale and in the countrys regions.
Keywords: emergency, civil protection, preparedness of response, resource support, model
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