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Risk level assessment while organizational-managerial decision making in the condition of dynamic external environment

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Category: Economy and Management

Last Updated on 22 May 2018

Published on 16 May 2018

Hits: 3087

Authors:

Ye. I. Zaiats, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), Assoc. Prof., orcid.org/0000-0002-7382-919Х, State Higher Educational Establishment “Prydniprovska State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

T. S. Kravchunovska, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), Prof., orcid.org/0000-0002-0986-8995, State Higher Educational Establishment “Prydniprovska State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V. V. Kovalov, Cand. Sc. (Tech.), Assoc. Prof., orcid.org/0000-0001-6731-4192, State Higher Educational Establishment “Prydniprovska State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

O. V. Kirnos, orcid.org/0000-0001-9497-0670, State Higher Educational Establishment “Prydniprovska State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract:

Purpose. Forming a complex factor of the project risk level assessment while organizational and economic decision making in a dynamic external environment based on measurement theory.

Methodology. The results are obtained through the application of the following methods: scientific generalization – for the formulation of scientific problems and general conclusions; measurement – to assess the project risk level; decision-making – to identify the problems of modeling the tasks of organizational and managerial decision making; modeling – during the elaboration of a risk level complex factor.

Findings. The risk uniformity factor is substantiated. It can be used to characterize an investment project in terms of the neighboring risk. This coefficient can be used as a correction one in the formation of a complete evaluation of risk package.

Originality. Provisions of quantitative risk assessment in the organization activity in the condition of the dynamic external environment are further developed. The difference from other approaches is the refusal of a priori assumptions about the stochasticity of studied processes and quantities. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is also the sphere of the risk implementation: it is advantageous to use “risk” not in all situations with random outcomes, but only when this outcome does constitute a significant danger for the decision-making subject. The concept of a “substantial” or “fractional” amount has a convincing objective component, although it is generally subjective. We proceed from the risk concept as a subjective characteristic of the situation in conditions of uncertainty, reflecting possible damage to the subject making a decision.

Practical value. The developed methodological regulations considering risk factor influence, based on the offered approach to its quantitative estimation, will increase reliability level of accepted organizational-administrative decisions during the substantiation of project cost and time indicators in the conditions of the dynamic external environment.

References.

1. Pivniak, G.G., Tabachenko, M.M., Dychkovskyi, R.O. and Falshtynskyi, V.S., 2015. Risk management in mining activities: monograph. Dnipropetrovsk: National Mining University.

2. Zayats, Ye.I., 2015. Accounting for uncertainty in the feasibility study of design decisions for the construction of high-rise multifunctional complexes. Visnyk Prydniprovskoi derzhavnoi akademii budivnytstva ta arkhitektury, 4, pp. 26–32.

3. Mlodetskiy, V.R., Tyan, R.B., Popova, V.V. and Martysh, A.A., 2013. Organizational and technological and economic reliability in construction: monograph. Dnepropetrovsk: Nauka i obrazovanie Publ.

4. Mizulin, M., Fedulov, Yu. and Yusov, A., 2014. Methods of making managerial decisions: monograph. Saarbrucken: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing.

5. Gribanov, D.D., 2015. General theory of measurements: monograph. Moscow: NITS INFRA-M.

6. Petrova, A.V., 2014. Methods for assessing the level of risk in the enterprise [online]. Available at: <www.sciencebsea.bgita.ru/2014/ekonom_2014_22/petrova_metod.htm> [Accessed 10 February 2017].

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