“Permanent assets per capita” index forecasting on the base of region statistical monitoring

User Rating:  / 0
PoorBest 

Authors:

L.V. Sarycheva, Candidate of Sciences (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor, Professor of the GIS Department of the State Higher Educational Institution “National Mining University”, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

M.V. Shamseyeva, Foreign Economic Activity Department Manager, «Malbi» Company, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

Annotation:

The technique of a finding structure of dependence of a macroeconomic indicator (y – “The permanent assets by regions”) on a set of others (x1, x2, …, xm – “Investments into a fixed capital per capita by regions”, “Amount of the small enterprises by regions”, etc.) is offered. It is constructed the model for forecasting of the studied indicator in conditions when it is not known a priori which xi participate in formation of y. In system ArcGIS the geoinformation analysis of the received model is carried out.

Bibliography:

1. Ivanenko O.G. Inductive methods of forecasting and analysis of complex economic systems / Ivanenko O.G., Ivanenko G.O. // Economist. – 1988.–No.5. – P. 88–97.

2. Statistic year-book of Dniepropetrovsk area for 2004 year. Dniepropetrovsk: the Head administration of statistics. – 2004. – 570 p.

3. Sarycheva L.V. Computer ecology-social-economic region monitoring. Mathematical support: Monograph / Sarycheva L.V. – Dniepropetrovsk: NGU. – 2003. – 222 p.

4. Sarycheva L.V. Computer ecology-social-economic region monitoring. Geoinformation support: Monograph / Sarycheva L.V. – Dniepropetrovsk: NGU.– 2003. – 174 p.

5. Sarychev A.P. S-Scheme of Sliding Examination for Optimal Set Features Determination in Discriminant Analysis by the Group Method of Data Handling / Sarychev A.P. // System Analysis and Modelling Simulation (SAMS), Taylor & Francis. – 2003. – Vol. 43. – No.10. – P. 1351–1362.

6. Sarycheva L.V. Using GMDH for Modeling Economical Indices of Mine Opening/ Sarycheva L.V. // Systems Analysis and Modeling Simulation (SAMS).– 2003, Vol. 43, No.10, P. 1341–1350.

7. Sarycheva L. Using GMDH in Ecological and Socio-economical Monitoring Problems/ Sarycheva L. // Systems Analysis and Modeling Simulation (SAMS). – 2003, Vol.43, No.10. – P. 1409–1414.

8. Sarycheva L. Cluster Analysis of Territories by the Totality of Ecological and Socio-Economic Indices / Sarycheva L., Zhuykov A. // IEEE 2001 International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, UNSW. – P. 663–664.

9. Muller J.-A. Self-organizing Data Mining. Extrating Knowledge from Data/ Muller J.-A., Lemke F. – Hamburg: Libri, 2000. – 250 p.

10. Ivanenko A.G. Selbstorgfnization von Vorherzagemodellen/ Ivanenko A.G., Muller J.-A. – Berlin: VEB Verlag Technik, 1984.– 270 p.

Files:
2011_02_sarych
Date 2012-11-27 Filesize 792.36 KB Download 1439

Tags: forecastmodelingGMDH-techniquenonlinear regress analysissocial-economical indicesgeoinformation analysis

Newer news items:

Older news items: