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The research of industrial production dynamics based on the tools of chaos theory

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Category: Content №2 2024

Last Updated on 01 May 2024

Published on 30 November -0001

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Authors:

O.Yankovyi*, orcid.org/0000-0003-2413-855X, Odesa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

N.Basiurkina, orcid.org/0000-0001-9342-8863, Odesa National University of Technology, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

H.Karpinska, orcid.org/0000-0003-4896-1866, Institute of Market And Economic & Ecological Researches of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

L.Malyshenko, orcid.org/0009-0006-1249-7714, Odesa Professional College of Trade and Economic, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Chernova, orcid.org/0000-0001-7142-8029, Odesa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2024, (2): 133 - 139

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-2/133

Abstract:

Purpose. To prove the possibility of improving the procedure for analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of economic systems through the comprehensive use of scientific achievements of chaos theory, namely: checking the trend stability of time series, studying their phase space, attractors, Lyapunov’s chaos indicators, the maximum length of a reliable forecast of the socio-economic system development, etc.

Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is the provisions of modern economic theory, in particular, statistics, economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting, economic cybernetics and systems theory, fundamental works of foreign and domestic scientists on the issues of fractal analysis and chaos theory.

Findings. The phase and fractal analysis of the dynamics series of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine was carried out, and their fractal dimension was determined. The correlation function was calculated and Lyapunov’s indicators were found to assess the degree of chaotic system, Kolmogorov entropy, and the parameter of evolution in time. The maximum length of a reliable forecast and the future values of the time series were also determined.

Originality. The article substantiates the necessity and possibility of applying the methodological apparatus of chaos theory in the process of analyzing and forecasting economic dynamics, including the development of domestic industrial production.

Practical value. The value of the work is determined by the applied aspects of reliable forecasts of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine obtained on the basis of the chaos theory tools, the possibility of comparative analysis of the domestic industry development in “potential peacetime” and actual wartime.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic systems, chaos theory, economic dynamics, persistence of time series

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