Науковий вісник НГУ

Modeling of the structural shift impact on economic dynamics of Ukraine's development

• 
• 

User Rating:  / 0

PoorBest 

Details

Category: Content №2 2021

Last Updated on 29 April 2021

Published on 30 November -0001

Hits: 3410

Authors:

A.A.Khodzhaian, orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-1016, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.I.Ignatyuk, orcid.org/0000-0002-9103-6943, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.V.Korneev, orcid.org/0000-0003-0654-5311, State Research Institute of Informatization and Modeling of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.R.Khodzhaian, orcid.org/0000-0002-0940-2220, State Research Institute of Informatization and Modeling of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine. e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2021, (2): 170 - 177

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2021-2/170

Abstract:

Purpose. To provide quantification of industry-specific structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term perspective as a result of the structural policies application.

Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is economic and mathematical modelling using the computable general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Methods of analysis and synthesis were used in systematization and generalization of modelling results. The study on the theoretical basis of the GTAP model was carried out using the system method.

Findings. The influence of structural policy instruments of the state on the dynamics of economic development in Ukraine is analyzed using the applied general equilibrium model GTAP. The essence and peculiarities of functioning of computable general equilibrium models, scope of their application in the analysis of structural changes in the economy are revealed. Using the GTAP model, the macroeconomic and sector-structural effects of the implementation of a number of structural policy measures in Ukraine have been quantified, including: exemption from payment of import duties on innovative equipment for processing industry manufacturers; preferential insurance and export crediting through an export credit agency; foreign trade facilitation; exemption of industrial park residents from payment of some direct taxes and fees (VAT, land tax, infrastructure levy). Positive economic effect of the proposed measures in structural and macroeconomic dimensions is argued. The impact of domestic economy restructuring on the dynamics of socio-economic development and general welfare of the population is estimated.

Originality. A methodical approach to quantitative assessment of macroeconomic and sectoral-structural effects in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term using the applied model of general equilibrium GTAP is proposed. It is revealed that in the medium term, the aggregate effect of the structural policy measures is 11.4% of GDP growth, both due to intensification of business activity as a whole and due to more efficient use of resources and factors of production in the more productive sectors of the national economy. Among the measures considered, the greatest structural effect is observed as a result of the development of a network of real-life industrial parks in Ukraine. At the same time, structural tariff policy has the lowest potential for economic growth, although it remains an important element in improving manufacturers access to innovative equipment.

Practical value. The results obtained can be used as a scientific substantiation of reforms in the industrial and foreign trade policy of Ukraine, aimed at ensuring qualitative structural shifts in the domestic economy.

Keywords: structural policy, structural shifts, computable general equilibrium model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), import duty, export credit agency, industrial park

References:

1. Pelekh, O.B. (2018). Structural shifts and transformations as processes and results of structural changes in the economy. Biznes Inform, 3, 8-14.

2. Kindzerskyi, Yu.V. (2018). Neo-industrial renaissance of Ukraine: vectors and mechanisms of policy in the context of European integration. Materialy Vseukrayinskoii naukovo-praktychnoyi konferentsiyi Ekonomichna stratehiia ta polityka realizatsii yevropeiskoho vektoru rozvytku Ukraiiny: kontseptualni zasady, vyklyky ta protyrichchia, 94-97.

3. Simkiv, L.E., & Melinyshyn, N.T. (2018). Features of structural changes in the economy of Ukraine. Naukovyi Visnyk Uzhhorodskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu. Seriia: Mizhnarodni ekonomichni vidnosyny ta svitove hospodarstvo, 19(3), 44-48.

4. Pyroh, O.V. (2017). Structural changes in the economic development of the national economy of Ukraine: sectoral view. Molodyivchenyi, 4, 729-735.

5. Kalinina, A.H. (2016). Assessment of structural changes in the economy of Ukrainian. Visnyk Pryazovskoho Derzhavnoho Tekhnichnoho Universytetu. Seriia: Ekonomichni nauky, 31(1), 184-188.

6. Ignatyuk, A., Petlenko, Y., Shevtsiv, L., Zaitsev, O., Klymash, N., & Dukhovska, L. (2020). Model of the dynamics of the companys value taking into account the ownership structure. International Journal of Management, 11(6), 323-333. https://doi.org/10.34218/IJM.11.6.2020.028.

7. Gryshova, I., Kyzym, M., Khaustova, V., Korneev, V., & Kramarev, H. (2020). Assessment of the Industrial Structure and Its Influence on Sustainable Economic Development and Quality of Life of the Population of Different World Countries. Sustainability, 12(5), 2072.

8. Duma, L.V. (2018). Modeling of sectoral structural changes in the regions economy. Biznes Inform, 12, 126-136.

9. Khomych, S.V. (2014). Modeling restructuring mixed economy based on dynamic model input-output with intellectual capital. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid, 18, 46-50.

10. Gorditsa, K.A., & Slyvka, T.O. (2020). Structural transformations in Ukraine in the context of the development of international economic relations: a historical dimension. Ekonomika Ukrainy, 2, 80-96.

11. Ivanov, E.I. (2019). Computable general equilibrium model GTAP as a tool for international trade policy analysis. Naukovyi Visnyk Uzhhorodskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu. Seriia: Mizhnarodni ekonomichni vidnosyny ta svitove hospodarstvo, 24(2), 26-32.

12. Burfisher, M.E. (2016). Introduction to computable general equilibrium models. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. NewYork: Cambridge University Press.

13. Dixon, P., Jerie, M., & Rimmer, M. (2016). Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: The Armmington, Krugman and Melitz Models. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 1(1), 1-110.

14. Voitseshyn, V.P. (2019). Export crediting as a means of its functioning. Vcheni zapysky Tavriiskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu imeni V. I. Vernadskoho. Seriia: Ekonomika i upravlinnia, 30(5), 105-109. https://doi.org/10.32838/2523-4803/69-5-19.

15. Rubtsova, O.S. (2020). Transaction costs of construction companies in foreign economic activity. Shliakhy pidvyshchennia efektyvnosti budivnytstva v umovakh formuvannia rynkovykh vidnosyn, 44, 67-72.

16. Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (n.d.). Retrieved from http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_2?id=&pf3516=2554%E0-%E4&skl=9.

• < Prev
• Next >