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Features of high-altitude distribution of mudflow sites in the Upper Tysa basins in Ukrainian Carpathians

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Category: Environmental safety, labour protection

Last Updated on 21 May 2017

Published on 21 May 2017

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Authors:

T.B.Chepurna, Cand. Sc. (Geol.), Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine, email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract:

Purpose. Establishment of regularities of the high-altitude and exposure distribution of mudflow sites in the basins of the rivers Teresva, Tereblya, Rika, Bila and Chorna Tysa, as well as connection between the landslide and mudflow processes.

Methodology. Digital terrain modeling of the basins of the rivers concerned. Spatial overlay analysis of distribution of mudflow sites, metric operations to obtain the data of the high-altitude and exposure positions and prevailing slope angles. Factor analysis identifying the direct and indirect effects of the high-altitude position of the mudflow potential sites onto mudflow formation, usage of the statistical criteria for significant characteristics selection. Graphical visualization of the influence of synthesis of the high-altitude position and slope angle onto the development of mudflows. Regression analysis of the regular connection availability between the mudflow and landslide processes.

Findings. Regularities of distribution of mudflow sites according to the factor characteristics: absolute altitude, slope angle, slope exposure and availability of landslides in the basins of the rivers concerned are identified.

Originality. The geoinformation modeling was used for the first time to identify the regularities of the mudflow development in relation to spatial factor characteristics for the basins of the rivers: predictor of the “absolute altitude” and revisers of the “slope angles” and “slope exposure”. The histogram analysis of the high-altitude distribution of the mudflows and landslides in the basins of the rivers mentioned was used to determine the connection availability between their development and high-altitude position. Functional dependencies are presented in the form of linear and quadratic regression dependencies showing the relative contribution of the features and indicating the respective levels of significance.

Practical value. The determined regularities can be used to identify potential sites of mudflow in the basins of the rivers Teresva, Tereblya, Rika, Bila and Chorna Tysa at known values of altitudes, slope angles and slope exposures and occurrence of the landslide processes on some high-altitude areas. The regression dependencies may be considered when carrying out the mathematical and prognostic geoinformation modeling of the mudflow phenomena development according to the following algorithm: establishment of similar regression and functional dependencies between other factors of mudflow formation, their combination according to the regularities shown in the article, forecasting of the mudflow hazards based on the formed multifactor multiple model.

References.

1. Taylor S.A., Larson, E.L. and Harrison, R.G.. 2015. Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 30, pp. 398‒406.

2. Kuzmenko, E.D. and Chepurna, T.B., 2014. Prediction of the mudflow processes: monograph. Ivano-Frankivsk: IFNTUOG.

3. Misak, T.B., 2011. Spatial analysis and prognostication of debris flow sites in the Carpathian region. Proceedings of UkrDGRI, 1, pp. 211‒222.

4. Zic, Elvis; Arbanas, Zeljko; Bicanic, Nenad; Ozanic, Nevenka, 2015. A model of mudflow propagation downstream from the Grohovo landslide near the city of Rijeka (Croatia). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, pp. 293–313.

5. Gabet, E.J. and Mudd, S.M., 2006. The mobilization of mudflows from shallow landslides. Geomorphology, 74(1), pp. 207‒218.

6. Jakob, M. and Hungr, O., eds., 2005. Debris-Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena. Praxis-Springer. Berlin.

7. Bahriy, I.D., Blinov, P.V. and Hozhyk, P.F., 2004. Activation of dangerous geological phenomenain Transcarpathiaas a result of extreme floods. Kyiv: Institute of Geological Sciences of Ukraine.

02_2017_Chepurna
2017-05-21  4.47 MB  842

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