Some possibilities of description of loess massif properties variability in conditions of weak technogenetic disturbance

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Authors:

T.P. Mokritskaya, Сand. Sci. (Geol.), Associate Professor, Oles Gonchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Deputy Dean, Senior Lecturer of the Department Geology and Hydrogeology, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.

Abstract:

Purpose. To test the methods of identification of mathematical models of the loess formation properties variability in urban areas affected by anthropogenic disturbance. To determine regularities of the soil properties variability occurred in the past. Analyzing data concerning the properties of loess unstable to the anthropogenic impact we have made back calculations of spatial variability of its properties.

Methodology. We have selected the representative data, identified the variables, and performed analysis of the variability of geotechnical properties. Heterogeneity and variability of the physical and mechanical properties of sagging soils at different levels of study of the massif are caused by change of paleo-geomorphic conditions occurred during its formation and by modern conditions. The most accurate mathematical model should reflect the complex variability of properties in spatial coordinates. We used the most reliable method of stochastic mathematical modeling to create the mathematical model.

Findings. The results of loess soil properties variability modeling on the basis of a random process model is presented in the article. The random model identification has been carried out by means of well-known method widely used in economic processes study. On the example of two natural-anthropogenic systems similar by geological conditions we have simulated variability of periglacial formation soil properties affected by anthropogenic impacts of low intensity.

Originality. We have proved the applicability of the Markov Process Model for description of the sequence of geotechnical properties at different levels of study of the geological environment. The increase of anthropogenic influence affects the form and parameters of the model of a random sequence. We have obtained the model of steady process and non-stationary random motion with drift. We have determined the presence of the chaotic state of the geological environment in the zone of the local anthropogenic system (city).

Practical value. The theory and practice of stochastic modeling of variability of geotechnical properties of the soils in the area affected by urban buildings will improve the accuracy and validity of the geological engineering predictions.

 

References:

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Kantorovich, G.G. (2002), “Time series analysis”, HSE Economic Journal, no.1;2, pp. 85–116; 251–273.

2. Потапов Ю.В. Использование пакета программ STATISTICA для анализа выборочных данных. Учебно-методическое пособие: Потапов Ю.В. – Томск: ТГУ, 2003. –45 с.

Pоtapov Yu.V. (2003), Ispolzovaniye paketa programm STATISTICA dlya analiza vyborochnykh dannykh [Using STATISTICA Software to Analyze Sample Data], TGU, Tomsk, Russia.

3. Лукьянова Н.В. Статистика: Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ статистической связи на персональном компьютере / Н.В. Лукьянова // Методические указания. Калининградский университет. – 2009. – 5 с.

Lukyanova, N.V. (2009), Statistika: Korrelyatsyonno-regressionnyi analiz statisticheskoy svyazi na personalnom kompytere [Statistics: Correlation-Regression Analysis of the Statistical Relation on a Personal Computer], KGU, Kaliningrad, Russia.

4. Мокрицкая Т.П. К вопросу о методах и результатах эпигноза изменчивости свойств лессового массива / Т.П. Мокрицкая, А.В. Тушев // Матеріали III міжнародної науково-практичної конференції: „Системнийаналіз. Інформатика. Управління“, 2012, (Запоріжжя,14–16 бер. 2012 р.)– Запоріжжя: ЗПУ, 2012. – 189с.

Mokritskaya, T.P. and Tushev, A.V. (2012), “About methods and results in back calculations of variability properties of loess massif”, Proc. of the 3-rd International Conference “System analysis. Іinformatics. Management”, SAIU, ZPU, Zaporizhia, Ukraine.

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Date 2014-05-06 Filesize 560.06 KB Download 580

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ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

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