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Modelling and assessment of chances of failure of power systems electrical equipment taking into account the after repair resource restoration level

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Category: Electrical engineering

Last Updated on Thursday, 10 July 2014 13:47

Published on Thursday, 10 July 2014 11:52

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Authors:

Ye.I. Bardyk, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, National Technical University of Ukraine “Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Head of the Department of Electric Poweer Plants, Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract:

Purpose. Development of mathematical models of assessment of failure chances of electric equipment on time interval taking into account the technical condition (TC) at the time of supervision and level of restoration of a resource after repair with the use of fuzzy-set theory.

Methodology. Approach for definition of an integrated indicator of level of restoration of a resource of electric equipment of power supply system after repair was offered. The mathematical model has been developed for assessment of chances of failure of electric equipment on an interval of time of supervision which is based on the formula of Bayes, the compositional rule of Zadeh, the accounting of the worked resource and level of resource restoration after repair at the time of supervision.

Findings. The analysis of operating conditions of modern electric power systems (EPS) and a problem of ensuring reliability of power supply of consumers were made. On the basis of the analysis of existing mathematical models of a complex assessment of a technical condition, the general worked resource of electrical systems’ equipment, practice of operation, the need of the accounting of restoration level of a resource after repair in refusal models was proved. We have established that the quantity of indicators of a resource of working capacity after repair of electric equipment needs to be formed by expert methods with use of fuzzy-set theory. The hierarchical block diagram and indistinct mathematical model for an assessment of restoration resource level of electric equipment after repair which is based on aggregation of indicators of quality of restoration of separate elements, functional units and parameters of technical condition of object, defined in postrepair tests and measurements has been offered.

Originality. Academic novelty of the offered method lies in adequate modeling of electric equipment of power supply systems for an assessment of chances of failure taking into account a real technical condition and level of restoration of a resource after repair at the time of supervision that gives the chance to increase the accuracy of definition of quantitative indices of risk of operation of EPS subsystems.

Practical value. The mathematical models created and the software for an assessment of chances of failure of electric equipment allows defining quantitative indices of accidents risk in complex EPS in the case of electric equipment failure.

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