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Economic modeling and evaluation of the success of oil and gas field exploration projects in Ukraine

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Parent Category: 2026

Category: Content №2 2026

Created on 25 April 2026

Last Updated on 25 April 2026

Published on 30 November -0001

Written by V. O. Onyshchenko, I. V. Vitryk, M. A. Firman

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Authors:

V. O. Onyshchenko, orcid.org/0000-0003-3486-1223, National University “Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic” Poltava, Ukraine

I. V. Vitryk*, orcid.org/0009-0004-8931-9209, National University “Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic” Poltava, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

M. A. Firman, orcid.org/0009-0008-8389-8704, National University “Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic” Poltava, Ukraine

* Corresponding author e-mail This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2026, (2): 158 - 166

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2026-2/158

Abstract:

Purpose. The development of an integrated model for assessing the success of discoveries and the economic efficiency of oil and gas production projects in Ukraine, which takes into account the interrelationship between geological conditions, technical parameters of development, and economic determinants.

Methodology. An algorithm for assessing the probability of commercial success in discovering new deposits has been proposed, including modeling the distribution of projected recoverable resources and using specialized formulas to quantitatively assess the chances of success. A comprehensive economic and mathematical model for assessing the profitability of oil and gas projects has been developed, integrating geological, technical, and economic parameters. Standard financial indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period (PP) were applied to assess the economic viability of projects.

Findings. The results obtained indicate that the success of discovery and economic assessment of oil and gas production projects are key factors for the development of Ukraine’s energy sector. To ensure the effectiveness of investment decisions in this area, it is necessary to apply comprehensive approaches to modeling and analysis.

Originality. The proposed model differs from existing ones in its integrated approach, combining technical (geological), investment, commercial, and economic assessments.

Practical value. The developed model can be used to make informed investment decisions, optimize field development, and improve the efficiency of Ukraine’s oil and gas industry.

Keywords: oil and gas projects, modeling, economic evaluation, NPV, IRR, economic factors

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