Articles

Modeling enterprises’ economic security in crisis conditions

User Rating:  / 0
PoorBest 

Authors:


H.Blakyta, orcid.org/0000-0001-7843-7120, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

O.Bogma, orcid.org/0000-0002-5637-6010, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

O.Bolduieva, orcid.org/0000-0001-5267-1816, Zaporizhzhia National University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Lukyanov, orcid.org/0000-0001-6450-1689, National Academy of Management, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

I.Shtuler, orcid.org/0000-0002-0852-8526, National Academy of Management, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


повний текст / full article



Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2021, (4): 116 - 121

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2021-4/116



Abstract:



Purpose.
To create a mathematical model for assessing, analyzing and forecasting the economic security of the enterprise in a crisis. To create an algorithm for assessing the levels of economic security.


Methodology.
In the scientific research, the results of which are given in the presented article, general and special methods of cognition were used. The method of logical generalization is used to substantiate the relevance of the topic, purpose and objectives of the study, to determine the essential features of indicators of economic security of the enterprise. The method of comparative analysis, quantitative and qualitative comparison is used to identify an integrated indicator that correlates with the characteristics of economic security and to provide analytical and predictive results of profitability of all activities of the enterprises of the industry and on its separate branches. The method of mathematical formalization is used for the formation of a mathematical model and algorithm for assessing the level of threat to the economic security of the enterprise.


Findings.
It is proposed to create a mathematical model by integrating individual blocks that use different mathematical approaches. This model is designed for analytical study on various aspects of economic security of the enterprise. Algorithms are proposed for estimating the levels of economic security (critical, dangerous, unsatisfactory, satisfactory, optimal ones) and also determining them using an integrated indicator that characterizes these levels; finding its deterministic, probabilistic and fuzzy components; a step-by-step increase in the relevance of the analysis of the level of economic security. It is also proposed to compare the effects of the crisis on enterprises in different industries and to gradually calculate integrated indicators in the areas of economic security for a homogeneous group of enterprises selected by industry, size and region. This provides an opportunity to see more broadly the threats and depth of the crisis and to implement measures to neutralize its consequences more effectively.


Originality.
The mathematical model for assessing and forecasting the economic security of enterprises in crisis conditions has been created. It is proposed to conduct a permanent rapid analysis and forecast of the impact of the crisis on the economic security of the enterprise using a standardized integrated index of economic security. An algorithm of step-by-step increase in relevance of the analysis of the level of economic security is introduced.


Practical value.
The developed mathematical apparatus can be used both for scientific research on various aspects of economic security of enterprises, and for practical purposes to predict the impact of the consequences of the economic crisis and implement measures to prevent them. Using this mathematical apparatus, the analysis and forecast of profitability of industrial enterprises as a whole and by its individual branches were carried out. The results of this analysis can be used by the management of small, medium and large enterprises to develop production plans in a crisis.



Keywords:
economic security of enterprise, impact of crisis, mathematical model, prognostication

References.


1. Rozin, V. (2021). From Engineering and Technological Process to Post-Cultural Technology. Future Human Image, 15, 99-109. https://doi.org/10.29202/fhi/15/9.

2. Shmaliy, L.V. (2019). Economic safety of enterprise: current problems of the supply. Economics. Management. Business, 1(27), 123-129. https://doi.org/10.31673/2415-8089.2019.012329.

3. Oliynyk, T. (2019). Methodical aspects of economic safety assessment of enterprises in market conditions. Ekonomika ta derzhava, 10, 69-72. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6806.2019.10.69.

4. Nazarova, K., Mysiuk, V., Gordopolov, V., Koval, V., & Danileviien, I. (2020). Preventional audit: implementation of SOX control to prevent fraud. Business: Theory and Practice, 21(1), 293-301. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2020.11647.

5. Bogachevska, I., & Alieksieieva, K. (2020). The Techno-Humanitarian Balance and Modernity. Philosophy and Cosmology, 25, 78-87. https://doi.org/10.29202/phil-cosm/25/7.

6. Sukhanova, A.V. (2019). Main components and principles of economic security of agrarian enterprises. Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics, 4(2), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2019-2-11.

7. Bursariev, V. (2019). Characteristics of main components of the economic security system of the fuel and energy complex. Scientific Papers (Ukrainian Academy of Printing), 1(58), 127-142. https://doi.org/10.32403/1998-6912-2019-1-58-95-102.

8. Chukurna, O., Nitsenko, V., Kralia, V., Sahachko, Y., Morkunas,M., & Volkov, A. (2019). Modelling and Managing the Effect of Transferring the Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Prices of Machine-Building Enterprises in Ukraine. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 19(1), 117-129. https://doi.org/10.17512/pjms.2019.19.1.09.

9. Dub, B.S. (2016). The system of the enterprises economic security: the concept and structure. Project management and production development, 4(60), 5-18.

10. Cherevko, O., Nazarenko, S., Zachosova, N., & Nosan, N. (2019). Financial and economic security system strategic management as an independent direction of management. SHS Web of Conferences, 65, 03001. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196503001.

11. Retter, L., Frinking, E.J., Hoorens, S., Lynch, A., Nederveen, F., & Phillips, W.D. (2020). Relationships between the economy and national security: Analysis and considerations for economic security policy in the Netherlands. Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR4287.

12. Pasenchenko, Yu.A., & Zinchenko, K.R. (2017). Modeling construction company strategy using game theory. Actual problems of economics and management, 11. Retrieved from http://ape.fmm.kpi.ua/article/view/102865/97983.

13. Shynkar, S., Gontar, Z., Dubyna, M., Nasypaiko, D., & Fleychuk, M. (2020). Assessment of economic security of enterprises: theoretical and methodological aspects.Business: Theory and Practice, 21(1), 261-271. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2020.11573.

14. Gochua, A., & Zedelashvili, T. (2020). Cyber Threats and Asymmetric Military challenges In the Context of Nuclear Security: Ukrainian and International Cases Analysis. Ukrainian Policymaker, 7, 20-27. https://doi.org/10.29202/up/7/3.

15. Bilan, Y., Zos-Kior, M., Nitsenko, V., Sinelnikau, U., & Ilin, V. (2017). Social component in sustainable management of land resources. Journal of Security and Sustainability, 7(2), 107-120. https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2017.7.2(9).

16. Frolova, L.V., & Rozhenko, O.V. (2016). Methodical approaches to enterprise economic security assessment. Actual problems of economics, 3(177), 199-209.

17. Liezina, A., Andriushchenko, K., Rozhko, O., Datsii, O., Mishchenko, L., & Cherniaieva, O. (2020). Resource planning for risk diversification in the formation of a digital twin enterprise. Accounting, 6, 1337-1344. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.8.016.

18. Pilipenko, N.M., & Pilipenko, V.V. (2017). Economic security as a dynamic characteristic of an enterprise. Economy and society, 10, 338-342.

19. Plastun, A., Drofa, A.O., & Klyushnik, T.V. (2019). Month of the year effect in the cryptocurrency market and portfolio management. European Journal of Management Issues, 27(1-2), 29-35. https://doi.org/10.15421/191904.

20. On approval of Methodical recommendations on the calculation of the level of economic security of Ukraine. 29.10.2013 No. 1277. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v1277731-13#Text.

 

Visitors

3654996
Today
This Month
All days
179
35218
3654996

Guest Book

If you have questions, comments or suggestions, you can write them in our "Guest Book"

Registration data

ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

Contacts

D.Yavornytskyi ave.,19, pavilion 3, room 24-а, Dnipro, 49005
Tel.: +38 (056) 746 32 79.
e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
You are here: Home