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Economic evaluation of risks of possible geomechanical violations of original ground in the fields of mines of Kryvyi Rih Basin

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Details: Category: Economy and management; Last Updated on 25 December 2013; Published on 19 December 2012; Hits: 3992

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Authors:

M.I. Stupnik, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, State Higher Educational Institution “Kryvyi Rih Technical University”, Deputy Rector, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine

O.V. Kalinichenko, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), State Higher Educational Institution “Kryvyi Rih Technical University”, Senior Lecturer of Management and Administration Department, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine

V.O. Kalinichenko, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Professor, State Higher Educational Institution “Kryvyi Rih Technical University”, Dean of the Faculty of Mining, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine

Abstract:

Purpose. To carry out the economic evaluation of risks of loss caused by geomechanical voilations, taking into account the probability of their occurrence for monitoring of large areas of original ground in the fields of closed and operating mines.

Methodology. Different general scientific and special methods of investigation have been used for economic risk assessment: the method of critical analysis and synthesis of theoretical studies, the methods of simulation and analysis of the economic risk of loss caused by geomechanical disturbances, methods of statistical and graphical mathematical modeling, economic risk-analysis, method of systematic approach, the method of economic and mathematical modeling. To assure timeliness and accuracy of the calculations, the editor Excel 7.0 and the complex integrated system of statistical analysis and data processing Windows Statistica have been used.

Findings. Economic evaluation of the geomechanical risks taking into account the probability of their occurrence in the monitoring of large parts of the earth surface in the fields of closed and operating mines allows us: to predict and estimate alternative development situation in the case of possible geomechanical violations; to make the most resonable decision if the geomechanical risk is high; to implement the decision in the most effective way due to adequate estimation of the possible damage.

Originality. We have determined the dependence of possible economic costsВ_jon liquidation of damages caused by geomechanical violations on j items of expenses. The variation of the possible economic lossЗ_іfrom the expected value МС(З) has been set. The standard deviation of the random variable of possible losses has been determined. We suggest choosing the optimal solution for the economic evaluation of the geomechanical risks by the maximumvalue of the Bayesian estimation criterion.

Practical value. The method of determination of the economic impact of possible geomechanical violations of the surface in the fields of closed and operating mines, taking into account the probanility of the geomechanical risks has been suggested.

References:

1. Калініченко О.В. Визначення економічних ризиків від порушень денної поверхні в результаті підземного видобутку руд / Калініченко О.В., Ступнік М.І., Ка-лініченко В.О. // Вісник Криворізького технічного університету : зб. наук. праць. – 2012. – № 96. – С. 329–333.

Kalinichenko, O.V., Stupnik, M.I. and Kalinichenko V.O. (2012), “Determination of economic risks from violations of original ground caused by underground production of ores”, Visnyk Kryvorizkoho tekhnichnoho universytetu, no.96, pp. 329–333.

2. Калініченко О.В. Визначення сутності поняття комплексної системи економічної оцінки геомеханічних ризиків / Калініченко О.В. // Науковий вісник Національного гірничого університету. – 2010. – №3. – С. 100–102.

Kalinichenko, O.V. (2010), “Determination of essence of concept of the complex system of economic evaluation of geomechanical risks”, Naukovyi visnyk Natsionalnoho hirnychoho universytetu, no.3, pp. 100–102.

3. Афанасьєв Є.В. Економіко-математичне моделювання ризику великих промислових підприємств з монопродуктовим виробництвом: [монографія] / Є.В. Афанасьєв // – Дніпропетровськ: Наука і освіта, 2005. – 234 с.

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4. Вітлінський В.В. Ризик у менеджменті / В.В. Вітлінський, С.І. Наконечний. – К.: ТОВ „Борисфен – М”, 1996. – 336 с.

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Vitlinskiy, V.V. and Verchenko, P.I. (2000), Analiz, modeliuvannia ta upravlinnia ekonomichnym ryzykom [Analysis, Modelling and Management of Economic Risk], KNEU, Kyiv, Ukraine.

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Tags: economic evaluation • risk • geomechanical violations • original ground

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