Науковий вісник НГУ

Adequacy of measures to threats as one of the fundamental ­principles of safety riskology

• 
• 

User Rating:  / 0

PoorBest 

Details

Category: Content №5 2024

Last Updated on 29 October 2024

Published on 30 November -0001

Hits: 1541

Authors:

Z.Matsuk*, orcid.org/0000-0001-6114-9536, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.Belikov, orcid.org/0000-0001-5822-9682, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Protsiv, orcid.org/0000-0002-2269-4993, TAFE NSW (Technical and Further Education New South Wales) Liverpool College, Sydney, Australia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Severyn, orcid.org/0009-0002-4387-6494, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Kharchenko, orcid.org/0000-0002-7653-3001, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2024, (5): 099 - 106

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-5/099

Abstract:

Purpose. To justify the need to apply the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” as a measure to improve the risk management methodology, to prevent (counteract) existing and emerging risks (threats) to the security of complex systems.

Methodology. The well-known methodological principle called “Ockam’s Razor” was used. In the course of the research, a complex method was used, which included formal and logical analysis of normative and scientific and technical literature, analysis of statistical data, synthesis, abstraction, experiment, observation, generalization of data, description.

Findings. In the course of the research, one of the threats (danger, risk) was identified, which simultaneously affects the existence of such a system due to traffic safety of rolling stock of rail transport enterprises, and the full implementation of the system’s capabilities due to axle loads, mass and speed movement of rolling stock, level of operating costs, passenger flow, regularity of transportation, etc. Experimental application of the lubricant “Mariol NT” in SPP 12-5, GS-3 lubrication systems showed a decrease in wear intensity by 240 %. Due to the use of a new lubricating material applied to the friction surface of wheel rims as part of the paint coating, the wear intensity of flanges of twin-wheel rims is reduced by 2.2 times, and that of locomotives by 2.4 times.

Originality. It was determined that the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” as a measure of improvement of the risk management methodology, prevention (counteraction) of existing and prospective risks (threats, dangers) during the safety assessment of complex systems is currently not applied, but its consideration helps to prevent (countermeasures) to existing and emerging risks (threats) to the safety of complex systems.

Practical value. The use of the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” allows for the theoretical and experimental determination of the numerical value of the ratio between the probability of an event occurring, caused by the action of an identified threat that negatively affects the state (level) of safety and operability of system elements at all stages of its existence, and the probability of a positively compensatory effect of the developed countermeasure to the identified threat.

Keywords: rolling stock, lubricant, safety, risk, threat, probability

References.

1. Przetacznik, S. (2022). The evolution of risk management. Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie, 53(1-2), 95-107. https://doi.org/10.25944/znmwse.2022.01-2.95107.

2. Bohnert, A., Gatzert, N., Hoyt, R. E., & Lechner, P. (2017). The relationship between enterprise risk management, value and firm characteristics based on the literature. Zeitschrift für die gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft, 106, 311-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12297-017-0382-1.

3. Golinko, V., Cheberyachko, S., Deryugin, O., Tretyak, O., & Dusmatova, O. (2020). Assessment of the Risks of Occupational Diseases of the Passenger Bus Drivers. Safety and Health at Work, 1(4), 543-549.

4. Bazaluk, O., Tsopa, V., Cheberiachko, S., Deryugin, O., Radchuk, D., Borovytskyi, O., & Lozynskyi, V. (2023). Ergonomic Risk Management Process for Safety and Health at Work. Frontiers Public Health, 11, 1253141. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1253141.

5. Popov, H., Lyon, B., & Hollcroft, B. (2016). Risk assessment. A Practical Guide to Assessing Operational Risks. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ISBN 9781119220916.

6. Samorodov, V., Bondarenko, A., Taran, I., & Klymenko, I. (2020). Power flows in a hydrostatic-mechanical transmission of a mining locomotive during the braking process. Transport Problems, 15(3), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.21307/tp-2020-030.

7. Aven, T. (2015). On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 140, 116-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.001.

8. Taran, I., & Klymenko, I. (2017). Analysis of hydrostatic mechanical transmission efficiency in the process of wheeled vehicle braking. Transport Problems, 12(Special Edition), 45-56.

9. Florio, C., & Leoni, G. (2017). Enterprise risk management and firm performance: The Italian case. The British Accounting Review, 49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2016.08.003.

10. Bohnert, A., Gatzert, N., & Hoyt, R. E. (2018). The drivers and value of enterprise risk management: evidence from ERM ratings. The European Journal of Finance, 25, 1-22.

11. Belikov, А. S., & Matsuk, Z. M. (2024). Optimization of a risk-oriented approach to the management of critical infrastructure objects. Protection of the population, territories and objects of critical infrastructure – education, science, practice: International science and method conference, May, 23–24 2024. Kyiv: NAU. Retrieved from https://er.nau.edu.ua/bitstream/NAU/63684/1/Belikov.pdf.

12. Zhuravel, O., Derbaba, V., Protsiv, V., & Patsera, S. (2019). Interrelation between Shearing Angles of External and Internal Friction During Chip Formation. Solid State Phenomena. Materials Properties and Technologies of Processing, 291, 193-203. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/SSP.291.193.

13. Ferdman, H. P. (2020). The essence of the concept of transport safety: the state-management aspect. Law and public administration. Collection of scientific works, (2), 231-236. https://doi.org/10.32840/pdu.2020.2.34.

14. Dubois, D. (2010). Representation, Propagation, and Decision Issues in Risk Analysis Under Incomplete Probabilistic Information. Risk Analysis, 30(3), 361-368. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01359.x.

15. Castro, L., Gulías, V., Abalde, C., & Jorge, J. (2010). Managing the Risks of Risk Management. Journal of Decision Systems, 17(4/2008), 501-521. https://doi.org/10.3166/jds.17.501-521.

16. Schiller, F., & Prpich, G. (2014). Learning to organise risk management in organisations: What future for enterprise risk management? Journal of Risk Research, 17(8), 999-1017. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2013.841725.

17. АТ “Ukrzaliznytsia” (2024). Risk management. Retrieved from https://www.uz.gov.ua/about/risk_management/.

18. Federation of European Risk Management. A Risk Management Standard (FERMA). Retrieved from https://www.iso.org/organization/667793.html.

19. Organizational Resilience: Security, Preparedness, and Continuity Management Systems – Requirements with Guidance for Use (ASIS SPC.1-2009) (2009). Retrieved from http://surl.li/tswez.

20. NFPA 1600: Standard on Disaster. Emergency Management and Business Continuity. Continuity of Operations Programs (2019). Retrieved from http://surl.li/tswfp.

21. Yang, S., Ishtiaq, M., & Anwar, M. (2018). Enterprise Risk Management practices and firm performance: The mediating role of competitive advantage and the moderating role of financial literacy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 3(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030035.

22. Hameed, W., Waseem, M., Sabir, S. A., & Dahri, A. S. (2020). Effect of Enterprise Risk Management system and implementation problem on financial performance: An empirical evidence from Malaysian listed firms. Abasyn University Journal of Social Sciences, 1(13), 12-24. https://doi.org/10.34091/AJSS.13.1.02.

23. Matsuk, Z. M. (2021). The concept of safety and energy resource efficiency of the oil and gas industry of Ukraine. Ukrainian Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, (4), 46-57. https://doi.org/10.30838/J.BPSACEA.2312.310821.46.789.

24. Belikov, А. S., Matsuk, Z. M., Shalomov, V. A., & Kharchenko, V. V. (2023). Increasing the safety of rolling stock due to a risk-oriented approach to “friction management” in the “wheel-saw-rail” friction pair. Zaliznychyi transport Ukrainy, 3(148), 23-37. https://doi.org/10.34029/2311-4061-2023-148-3-23-36.

25. Eckles, D. L., Hoyt, R. E., & Miller, S. M. (2014). The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry. Journal of Banking and Finance, 43, 247-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.02.007.

26. Belikov, A., Kreknin, K., Matsuk, Z., & Protsiv, V. (2022). Lubricants for rail transport liquid (plastic) for friction pair “wheel ‒ rail”. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, (2), 63-68. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2022-1/063.

27. Belikov, A. S., Kravchenko, O. G., Zavaliy, O. B., Likharev, M. V., Matsuk, Z. M., Protsiv, V. V., & Kozechko, V. A. (2020). Lubricants are liquid and plastic. Express selection method. Mining electromechanics and automation. NTU “DP”, (103), 107-114.

28. Silva, J. R., da Silva, A. F., & Chan, B. L. (2019). Enterprise Risk Management and firm value: Evidence from Brazil. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 3(55), 687-703. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1460723.

29. Saeidi, P., Saeidi, S. P., Sofian, S., Saeidi, S. P., Nilashi, M., & Mardani, A. (2019). The impact of enterprise risk management on competitive advantage by moderating role of information technology. Computer Standards & Interfaces, 63, 67-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csi.2018.11.09.

30. Naumov, V., Taran, I., Litvinova, Z., & Bauer, M. (2020). Optimizing resources of multimodal transport terminal for material flow service. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(16), 6545. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166545.

• < Prev
• Next >