Науковий вісник НГУ

Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability

• 
• 

User Rating:  / 0

PoorBest 

Details

Category: Content №5 2024

Last Updated on 29 October 2024

Published on 30 November -0001

Hits: 1230

Authors:

I.Strelchenko, orcid.org/0000-0001-5179-4304, Alfred Nobel University, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Smiesova*, orcid.org/0000-0002-0444-4659, Dnipro University of Technology, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

S.Kozhushko, orcid.org/0000-0002-6383-5182, Alfred Nobel University, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

I.Arakelova, orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-793X, Mariupol State University, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2024, (5): 170 - 176

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-5/170

Abstract:

Purpose. To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration.

Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis were used.

Findings. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and consequences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb-Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population and economic growth is established.

Originality. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration.

Practical value. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the consequences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore industry and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.

Keywords: Cobb-Douglas production function, forced migration, employment of the population, refugees, sustainable development

References:

1. UNHCR (2022). Lives on Hold: Intentions and Perspectives of Refugees from Ukraine. Retrieved from https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/95767#_ga=2.5544499.1218543842.1663938030-518881478.1646318875.

2. UNHCR (2023). Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe. Retrieved from https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

3. Aleksieieva, T. (2019). Evolution of Migration Processes through the Prism of International Relations Theory. Naukovyi Visnyk Uzhhorodskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu: seriia: Mizhnarodni ekonomichni vidnosyny ta svitove hospodarstvo, 24(1), 10-13.

4. Ovcharenko, O., Smiesova, V., Korotka, L., Kuchkova, O., & Karpenko, R. (2022). Economic security of regions: A methodological approach to assessment, management, and legal regulation. Region, 9(1), 83-100. https://doi.org/10.18335/region.v9i1.375.

5. Madaminova, D. I., & Zilong, W. (2022). The Problem of Migration and Approaches to Its Study. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review, 5(1), 176-183. https://doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v5i1.184.

6. Smiesova, V., Ivanova, M., Faizova, S., Zolotukhina, L., & Karpenko, R. (2020). Strengthening of the Power-property Tendencies and Forecasting their Impact on the Implementation of Interests of Households, Enterprises and the State. Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice, Series D: Faculty of Economics and Administration, 28(2), 113-125. https://doi.org/10.46585/sp28020113.

7. Tertyshna, O., Royenko, K., Martynenko, V., Gyrenko, A., Topilnytskyy, P., & Smiesova, V. (2016). The utilization of asphalt-resin-paraffin deposits as a component of raw material for visbreaking. Chemistry and Chemical Technology, 10(3), 361-366.

8. Pylypenko, H., Pylypenko, Yu., Dubiei, Yu., Solianyk, L., Pazynich, Yu., Buketov, V., …, & Magdziarczyk, M. (2023). Social capital as a factor of innovative development. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity, 9(3), 100-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2023.100118.

9. Jobelius, M., & Stolciu, V. (2014). Die Mär vom “Sozialtourismus”: Zuwanderung rumänischer Staatsbürger nach Deutschland und in andere EU-Mitgliedsländer. Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Retrieved from http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id-moe/10467.pdf.

10. Lami, B., Tarasenko, I., Shyshova, O., Voropayeva, T., & Verhun, A. (2022). International Migration of Human Resources in the Conditions of Social Transformations. Economies, 10(9), 216. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10090216.

11. Kravchenko, I., & Zhuk, R. (2022). The new migration wave from Ukraine to EU countries: scale, factors, consequences. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice, 6(47), 458-468. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.6.47.2022.393.

12. Drakokhrust, T., Prodan, I., & Tkach, U. (2019). Migration challenges: trends and implications for Ukraine and countries of Eastern Europe. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 5(2), 30-38. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2019-5-2-30-37.

13. Vasyltsiv, T., Lupak, R., & Kunytska-Iliash, M. (2019). Social security of Ukraine and the EU: aspects of convergence and improvement of migration policy. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 5(4), 50-58. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2019-5-4-50-58.

14. Tucha, O., Spivak, I., Bondarenko, O., & Poharska, O. (2022). The impact of Ukrainian migrants on the economies of recipient countries. Retrieved from https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/Migration_impact_2022-12-15.pdf.

15. Lymonova, E., Kliuchnyk, R., & Taranenko, I. (2023). The impact of migration from Ukraine on European economies during the war with russia. Akademichnyi ohliad, 1(58), 242-252. https://doi.org/10.32342/2074-5354-2023-1-58-18.

16. Clancy, C., Watson, T., & Raw, Z. (2021). Resilience and the role of equids in humanitarian crises. Disasters, 46, 1075-1097. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12501.

17. Buterin, V., Fajdetić, B., & Mrvčić, M. (2022). Impact of migration and population aging on economic growth in the republic of Croatia. Ekonomski vjesnik/Econviews – Review of Contemporary Business, Entrepreneurship and Economic Issues, 35(1), 151-164. https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.12.

18. Gerlach, I., & Ryndzak, O. (2022). Ukrainian Migration Crisis Caused by the War. Studia Europejskie – Studies in European Affairs, 2, 17-29. https://doi.org/10.33067/SE.2.2022.2.

19. Cénat, J. M., Darius, W. P., Noorishad, P.-G., McIntee, S.-E., Dromer, E., Mukunzi, J. N., …, & Williams, M. T. (2022). War in Ukraine and Racism: The Physical and Mental. Health of Refugees of Color Matters. International Journal of Public Health, 45, 160-179. https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604990.

20. Reinhard, A. W. (2023). A near-real-time analysis of societal responses to Ukrainian refugee migration in Europe. International Migration, 61, 17-36. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13071.

21. Von Hermanni, H., & Neumann, R. (2019). ‘Refugees welcome?’ The interplay between perceived threats and general concerns on the acceptance of refugees – a factorial survey approach in Germany. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 45(3), 349-374. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1459183.

22. Gammeltoft-Hansen, T., & Hoffmann, F. (2022). Mobility and legal infrastructure for Ukrainian refugees. International Migration, 34, 213-216. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13039.

23. Trojanek, R., & Gluszak, M. (2022). Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland. Finance Research Letters, 26, 103-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103236.

24. Bogadi, S. K. (2018). Migration from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Croatia: Migration patterns of immigrants in Zagreb. STANOVNIŠTVO, 56(2), 39-62. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV1802039K.

25. Yaskov, Ye. O., & Smiesova, V. L. (2023). The market of international rating agencies and approaches to assessing the investment attractiveness of the country. Akademichnyi ohliad, 1(58), 270-283. https://doi.org/10.32342/2074-5354-2023-1-58-20.

26. Strelchenko, I., & Lukianenko, D. (2021). Neuromodeling of features of crisis contagion on financial markets between countries with different levels of economic development. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, 10, 136-163. https://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2021.136.

27. Libanova, E. (2023). How has the labor market changed during the war: nowadays and prospects. Retrieved from https://zn.ua/ukr/ECONOMICS/jak-zminivsja-rinok-pratsi-u-vojennij-chas-sohodennja-ta-perspektivi.html.

28. State Statistics service of Ukraine (2023). Statistical Information. Retrieved from https://ukrstat.gov.ua.

29. Gremi Personal (2023). How many Ukrainians plan to stay in Poland – a study. Retrieved from https://gremi-personal.com.ua/skilki-bizhenciv-ne-povernutsja-v-ukrainu-doslidzhennja.

30. Brzozowski, J., & Coniglio, N. (2021). International migration and the (un) happiness push: Evidence from Polish longitudinal data. International Migration Review, 55, 1089-1020. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183211004835.

31. Odnolitok, T. (2022). How many people still remain in the occupied territories. Retrieved from https://www.unian.ua/society/viyna-v-ukrajini-skilki-lyudey-shche-zalishayetsya-na-timchasovo-okupovanih-teritoriyah-11976861.html.

32. IOM (2021). Migration in Ukraine: figures and facts. Retrieved from https://ukraine.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1861/files/documents/migration_in_ukraine_facts_and_figures_2021-ukr_web.pdf.

33. Sinha, C. (2017). International migration and welfare implications. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 6, 209-229.

• < Prev
• Next >