Institutionalization of trade agreements of asymmetrical partners: cointegration analysis
- Details
- Category: Content №3 2025
- Last Updated on 25 June 2025
- Published on 30 November -0001
- Hits: 817
Authors:
N.Kalyuzhna, orcid.org/0000-0003-0513-705X, State University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A.Khodzhaian*, orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-1016, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: Alina_ This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
* Corresponding author e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2025, (3): 183 - 191
https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2025-3/183
Abstract:
Purpose. To evaluate the effectiveness of concluding regional preferential trade agreements of asymmetric partners based on cointegration analysis.
Methodology. The research hypothesis is that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners through the conclusion of a regional trade agreement will lead to an increase in the cointegration of their bilateral trade indicators. The Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to confirm the presence of cointegration of export time series. The statistical data of the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the Trading Economics online resource, and the Office of the US Trade Representative constituted the information and analytical base of the study.
Finding. It was established that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners should ensure mutual effects in the transition from multilateral trade under the terms of the WTO to the format of a regional preferential agreement. As evidence of obtaining such effects, it is proposed to recognize the provision of positive stable dynamics of bilateral trade performance indicators of asymmetric partners, which is synchronized in time and proportional to their trade and economic potential, which will mean the cointegration of their trade flows. It is hypothesized that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners through the conclusion of a regional preferential agreement leads to an increase in the cointegration of bilateral trade indicators. Testing of the hypothesis regarding the growth (or emergence in the case of a previous absence) of cointegration of indicators of bilateral trade of asymmetric partners in the conditions of a free trade zone was carried out on the example of foreign trade relations of the USA with the countries of Central and South America. The Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to confirm the hypothesis. The results of the test showed that after the conclusion of a preferential regional agreement, as a rule, cointegration of the time series of bilateral exports of the United States and trading partners occurs. The obtained results allow us to accept the hypothesis about the effectiveness and mutual expediency of deepening the trade and economic integration of countries with an asymmetric level of economic development.
Originality. A methodical approach to evaluating the effectiveness of concluding regional preferential trade agreements of asymmetric partners is proposed on the basis of cointegration analysis, which will contribute to the deepening of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of the trade and economic potential of integration associations of asymmetric countries.
Practical value. The obtained results create a basis for optimizing Ukraine’s foreign trade priorities by testing the cointegration of the country’s foreign trade indicators with asymmetric partners. This will allow one both to analyse the effectiveness of mutual liberalization mechanisms within the already functioning free trade zones, and to evaluate the prospects of Ukraine joining other preferential agreements.
Keywords: institutionalism, trade and economic integration, asymmetric partners, preferential agreements, cointegrability
References.
1. Smiesova, V., Pylypenko, A., Ivanova, M., & Karpenko, R. (2019). Economic and Institutional Conditions for Implementation of Economic Interests in the Countries of the World. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 15(4), 75-86. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2019.15-4.6
2. Pylypenko, Yu., Pylypenko, H., Lytvynenko, N., Tryfonova, O., & Prushkivska, E. (2019). Institutional components of socio-economic development. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, (3), 164-171. https://doi.org/10.29202/nvngu/2019-3/21
3. Khodzhaian, A. A., & Khodzhaian, A. R. (2019). Global practice of structural and sectoral transformations. Foreign trade: economy, finance, law, 2(103), 46-63. https://doi.org/10.31617/zt.knute.2019(103)
4. Acharya, R. (Ed.). (2016). Regional Trade Agreements and the Multilateral Trading System (WTO Internal Only). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316676493
5. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2021; 2023). Geographical structure of foreign trade in goods. Retrieved from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
6. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). (n.d.). Free Trade Agreements. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements
7. Tsygankova, T., Yatsenko, O., Tananaiko, T., Solodkovska, G., Olefirenko, V., & Ishchenko, A. (2022). Free Trade Agreements in the World Trade System: Benefits and Models. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 6(47), 172-181. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.6.47.2022.3925
8. Obolenska, T., Kalenyuk, I., & Yatsenko, O. (2020). Formation and implementation of trade integration potential. Bulletin of Kharkiv National University named after V. Dokuchaev. Series on “Economic Sciences”, (3), 250-263. https://doi.org/10.31359/2312-3427-2020-3-251
9. Chuhaiev, O. (2016). Trade integration in conditions of asymmetry of countries. Bulletin of Kharkiv National University named after V. N. Karazin. Series: Economics, 90, 164-172.
10. Balezentis, A., & Yatsenko, O. (2018). Asymmetries of trade integration of Ukraine and the EU. International economic policy, 1(28), 32-62.
11. Kalyuzhna, N., Khodzhaian, A., & Baron, I. (2021). Identification of globalization threats to the economic sovereignty of countries with transition economies. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 1(181), 154-164. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2021-1/154
12. Khodzhaian, A. (2017). Strategic partnership as a form of innerstate cooperation. Scientific Bulletin of Polissia Chernihiv National University of Technology, 3(11), Part1, 48-53. https://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2017-1-3(11)-48-53
13. Guzhva, I., Nebotov, P., & Ivanov, E. (2019) Foreign Trade Policy for Integration into Global Value Chains. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 5(2), 24-29. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2019-5-2-24-29
14. Bazaluk, O., Yatsenko, O., Reznikova, N., Bibla, I., Karasova, N., & Nitsenko, V. (2022). International integration processes influence on welfare of country. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 23(2), 382-398. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2022.16228
15. Melnyk, T., Kalyuzhna, N., & Pugachevska, К. (2018). Gravity model of trade turnover between Ukraine and the EU. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 4(4), 217-222. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2018-4-4-217-222
16. Kalyuzhna, N. (2020). Foreign trade integration of Ukraine in the conditions of deepening interstate conflicts. The problems of economy, 1(43), 27-35. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-27-35
17. Mogoe, S., & Mongale, I. P. (2014). The Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth in South Africa: An Econometrics Analysis. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(14), 60-66.
https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n14p60
18. Orudzhev, E., & Alizade, A. (2021). Cointegration analysis of the impact of Azerbaijan and Ukraine GDPs on the trade turnover between these countries. Journal of International Studies, 14(3), 274-290. https://doi.org /10.14254/2071-8330.2021/143/18
19. Naveh, M., Torosyan, T., & Jalaee, S. (2012). Regional economic integration and its effects on economic growth and economic welfare. World Applied Sciences Journal, 17(10), 1349-1355.
20. Shah, S. A., Mir, M. A., & Megits, N. (2022). The linkage between international trade and economic growth in Kazakhstan. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 9(6), 1021-1033. https://doi.org /10.15549/jeecar.v9i6.1019
21. Kahaka, Z., & Khumoetsile, W. (2022). International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Botswana. The International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention, 9(12), 7450-7458. https://doi.org /10.18535/ijsshi/v9i012.01
22. Tomic, D., Skare, M., & Kristek, I. (2020). Terms of trade impact on international trade: A panel cointegration analysis. Transformations in Business and Economics, 19(3), 136-158.
23. Etienne, N. (2022). Econometrics Analysis of Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth in Rwanda (1990‒2017). International Journal of Management Research and Economics, 2(2), 30-46. https://doi.org/10.51483/IJMRE.2.2.2022.30-46
24. Ji, X., Dong, F., Zheng, C., & Bu, N. (2022). The Influences of International Trade on Sustainable Economic Growth: An Economic Policy Perspective. Sustainability, 15(5), 2781. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052781
25. Purnama, P. D., & Yao, M. H. (2019). The Relationship between International Trade and Economic Growth. International Journal of Applied Business Research (IJABR), 1(2), 112-123. https://doi.org/10.35313/ijabr.v1i02.72
26. Mallick, L., & Behera, S. R. (2020). Does trade openness affect economic growth in India? Evidence from threshold cointegration with asymmetric adjustment. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8, 1782659. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1782659
27. Kalyuzhna, N., & Kudyrko, L. (2023). Effectiveness of trade and economic integration of asymmetric countries: evaluatement methods and tools. Journal of Economy and Technology, (1), 119-126. https://doi.org /10.1016/j.ject.2023.11.003
28. Greene, W. H. (2018). Econometric Analysis. London: 8th Edition, Pearson Education Limited. Retrieved from https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781292231150_A39514649/preview-9781292231150_A39514649.pdf
29. World Trade Organization (n.d.). Regional Trade Agreements Database. Retrieved from https://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx
30. International Monetary Fund (n.d.). GDP, current prices. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC
31. Trading Economics (n.d.). United States Indicators. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators
Newer news items:
- Social media and sustainable education: an analysis of the mediating role and competence of teachers - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Economic security of Ukraine: state, threats and problems of ensuring in the context of globalization - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Digital competence of public servants in the context of developing a digital service-oriented state - 25/06/2025 03:56
- The automated system “SEL” as a tool for higher education institution management - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Application of alternative methods for resolving labor disputes at industrial enterprises under martial law - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Synergistic approach to the resilience management of socio-ecological and economic development of Ukraine - 25/06/2025 03:56
Older news items:
- International experience in protecting the rights and freedoms of internally displaced persons - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Hardware and software for engine fuel supply control under incomplete information conditions - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Intelligent technology for land cover monitoring due to amber mining on optical satellite images - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Legal aspects of environmental rights guarantees in the conditions of martial state in Ukraine - 25/06/2025 03:56
- New complex heat-recovery systems of environmentally efficient boiler installations - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Assessment of human-operator’s influence on technical and economic indicators of the excavator production cycle - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Evaluation of vehicle stability parameters during wheel-obstacle impact scenarios - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Optimization of electromagnetic radiation by hybrid and electric vehicles - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Green technologies in the design of single-storey frameworks - 25/06/2025 03:56
- Importance of copper sulfate adsorption quality in the improvement of sphalerite separation: case of Chaabat El Hamra Deposit (Algeria) - 25/06/2025 03:55