Institutionalization of trade agreements of asymmetrical partners: cointegration analysis

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N.Kalyuzhna, orcid.org/0000-0003-0513-705X, State University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.Khodzhaian*, orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-1016, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: Alina_ This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


повний текст / full article



Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2025, (3): 183 - 191

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2025-3/183



Abstract:



Purpose.
To evaluate the effectiveness of concluding regional preferential trade agreements of asymmetric partners based on cointegration analysis.


Methodology.
The research hypothesis is that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners through the conclusion of a regional trade agreement will lead to an increase in the cointegration of their bilateral trade indicators. The Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to confirm the presence of cointegration of export time series. The statistical data of the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the Trading Economics online resource, and the Office of the US Trade Representative constituted the information and analytical base of the study.

Finding. It was established that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners should ensure mutual effects in the transition from multilateral trade under the terms of the WTO to the format of a regional preferential agreement. As evidence of obtaining such effects, it is proposed to recognize the provision of positive stable dynamics of bilateral trade performance indicators of asymmetric partners, which is synchronized in time and proportional to their trade and economic potential, which will mean the cointegration of their trade flows. It is hypothesized that the deepening of the trade and economic integration of asymmetric partners through the conclusion of a regional preferential agreement leads to an increase in the cointegration of bilateral trade indicators. Testing of the hypothesis regarding the growth (or emergence in the case of a previous absence) of cointegration of indicators of bilateral trade of asymmetric partners in the conditions of a free trade zone was carried out on the example of foreign trade relations of the USA with the countries of Central and South America. The Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to confirm the hypothesis. The results of the test showed that after the conclusion of a preferential regional agreement, as a rule, cointegration of the time series of bilateral exports of the United States and trading partners occurs. The obtained results allow us to accept the hypothesis about the effectiveness and mutual expediency of deepening the trade and economic integration of countries with an asymmetric level of economic development.


Originality.
A methodical approach to evaluating the effectiveness of concluding regional preferential trade agreements of asymmetric partners is proposed on the basis of cointegration analysis, which will contribute to the deepening of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of the trade and economic potential of integration associations of asymmetric countries.


Practical value.
The obtained results create a basis for optimizing Ukraine’s foreign trade priorities by testing the cointegration of the country’s foreign trade indicators with asymmetric partners. This will allow one both to analyse the effectiveness of mutual liberalization mechanisms within the already functioning free trade zones, and to evaluate the prospects of Ukraine joining other preferential agreements.



Keywords:
institutionalism, trade and economic integration, asymmetric partners, preferential agreements, cointegrability

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ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
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Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

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