Determination of trends and regularities of occurrence of emergency situations of technogenic and natural character in Ukraine
/ 0
- Details
- Parent Category: Contents №6 2017
- Category: Environmental safety, labour protection
- Created on 11 January 2018
- Last Updated on 11 January 2018
- Published on 11 January 2018
- Written by Super User
- Hits: 5053
Authors:
V.Ye. Kolesnik, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, orcid.org/0000-0003-2349-3576, National Mining University, Professor of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine
O.O. Borysovs'ka, Candidate of Technical Science, Associate Professor, orcid.org/0000-0001-7309-0236, National Mining University, Associate Professor of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine
А.V. Pavlychenko, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-9180, National Mining University, Head of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A.L. Shirin, Candidate of Technical Science, orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-2767, National Mining University, Associate Professor of the Department of Software Engineering, Dnipro, Ukraine
Abstract:
Purpose. Identification of trends and patterns of emergencies in Ukraine for their further forecasting and prevention.
Methodology. It was based on the system analysis of natural and man-made emergencies, with the estimation and forecasting of the frequency of their occurrence, based on the use of statistical analysis of dynamic rows and the construction of their trends.
Findings. It is established that the number of technogenic emergency situations in Ukraine is 1.5 times higher than the natural one. Meteorological emergencies are at the first place among all the subclasses of natural emergencies ‒ an average 22.1 % of cases annually, the second place is associated with fires in natural ecological systems (10.8 % of cases), and there are geological and hydrological emergencies at the third place (5.0 and 5.1 % respectively). It is determined that each technogenic emergency situation incurs losses of 0.45 ± 0.17 million UAH, and each emergency situation of natural character on the average leads to losses at the level of 42.97 ± 23.97 million UAH. It is proved that 97.83 % of material damage to the economy of the state is caused by nature disasters, and the rest – by technogenic emergency situations, the specific losses from the last one tend to grow.
Originality. For the first time, on the basis of analytical studies, it has been established that there is a close growing linear relationship between the number of natural disasters and number of technogenic emergency situations, which is described by the equation y = 1.3x + 18.34 (R² = 0.7763). For each negative situation of natural origin with a fairly high reliability, there is 1.3 negative event of technogenic origin.
Practical value. The results of the study can be used to develop forecasts and take appropriate decisions on the prevention and elimination of emergencies.
References
1. Shmandiy, V. M., Kharlamova, E. V. and Rigas, T. E., 2015. The study of manifestations of environmental hazards at the regional level. Gigiena i Sanitariya, 7, рр. 90‒92.
2. Bezsonov, Y. and Andreiev, V., 2016. Justification and formalization of approach to regional environmental safety evaluation. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies [e-journal], 2(10(80)), рр. 9–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.64843.
3. Boiko, T. and Abramova, A., 2014. Definition of environmental risk as integral criterion in assessing of man-caused load, Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies [e-journal], 3(10(69)), рр. 4–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.24316.
4. Biliaiev, M. M., Rostochilo, N. and Kharytonov, M., 2014. Expert Systems for Assessing Disaster Impact on the Environment. In: Teodorescu H. N., Kirschenbaum A., Cojocaru S., Bruderlein C., eds., 2014. Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation – IT Means and Tools. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 153‒165.
5. Krichevskii, S., 2015. Evolution of technologies, “green” development and grounds of the general theory of technologies, Philosophy & Cosmology, 14, рр. 120–139.
6. Dagonneau, J., Rocks, S. A., Prpich, G., Garnett, K., Black, E. and Pollard, S. J. T., 2017. Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention. Science of The Total Environment [e-journal], 595, рр. 537–546. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.293.
7. La Rosa, D., Privitera, R., Barbarossa, L. and La Greca, P., 2017. Assessing spatial benefits of urban regeneration programs in a highly vulnerable urban context: A case study in Catania, Italy. Landscape and Urban Planning [e-journal], 157, рр. 180–192. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.05.031.
8. Stoietskii, V. F., Golinko, V. I. and Dranishnikov, L. V., 2014. Risk assessment in man-caused accidents. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2, pp. 117–124.
9. Savytskyi, M. V., Bondarenko, O. I., Babenko, M. M. and Benderskyi, Yu.B., 2015. Options of sustainable development of region’s territory. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 4, pp. 157–161.
10. Gavrilidis, A. A., Ciocănea, C. M., Niţă, M. R., Onose, D. A. and Năstase, I. I., 2016. Urban Landscape Quality Index – Planning Tool for Evaluating Urban Landscapes and Improving the Quality of Life. Procedia Environmental Sciences [e-journal], 32, рр. 155–167. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.020.
11. Gorova, A., Pavlychenko, A., Borysovska, O. and Krupska, L., 2013. The development of methodology for assessment of environmental risk degree in mining regions. In: Mining of Mineral Deposits, Leiden, Netherlands: CRC Press/Balkema, pp. 207−209.
12. Oreshchenko, A. and Nesterchuk, I., 2017. Development and use of a geoinformation system for revealing urban problems. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies [e-journal], 2(2(86)), рр. 32–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.98809.
13. Vambol, S., Vambol, V., Sychikova, Y. and Deyneko, N., 2017. Analysis of the ways to provide ecological safety for the products of nanotechnologies throughout their life cycle. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies [e-journal], 1(10(85)), рр. 27–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.85847.
14. Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine. National reports on the state of ecological and technogenic safety in Ukraine for 1997‒2014. Official website of the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine [online]. Available at: <http://www.mns.gov.ua/content/national_lecture.html> [Accessed 11 March 2017].
15. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine, 2015. Information and analytical report on emergency situations in Ukraine, which occurred during 2015 Official site of the SES of Ukraine [online]. Available at: <http://www.dsns.gov.ua/ua/Dovidka-za-kvartal/44615.html> [Accessed 24 November 2016].
