Determination of trends and regularities of occurrence of emergency situations of technogenic and natural character in Ukraine

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Authors:

V.Ye. Kolesnik, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, orcid.org/0000-0003-2349-3576, National Mining University, Professor of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine

O.O. Borysovs'ka, Candidate of Technical Science, Associate Professor, orcid.org/0000-0001-7309-0236, National Mining University, Associate Professor of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine

А.V. Pavlychenko, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-9180, National Mining University, Head of the Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.L. Shirin, Candidate of Technical Science, orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-2767, National Mining University, Associate Professor of the Department of Software Engineering, Dnipro, Ukraine

Abstract:

Purpose. Identification of trends and patterns of emergencies in Ukraine for their further forecasting and prevention.

Methodology. It was based on the system analysis of natural and man-made emergencies, with the estimation and forecasting of the frequency of their occurrence, based on the use of statistical analysis of dynamic rows and the construction of their trends.

Findings. It is established that the number of technogenic emergency situations in Ukraine is 1.5 times higher than the natural one. Meteorological emergencies are at the first place among all the subclasses of natural emergencies ‒ an average 22.1 % of cases annually, the second place is associated with fires in natural ecological systems (10.8 % of cases), and there are geological and hydrological emergencies at the third place (5.0 and 5.1 % respectively). It is determined that each technogenic emergency situation incurs losses of 0.45 ± 0.17 million UAH, and each emergency situation of natural character on the average leads to losses at the level of 42.97 ± 23.97 million UAH. It is proved that 97.83 % of material damage to the economy of the state is caused by nature disasters, and the rest – by technogenic emergency situations, the specific losses from the last one tend to grow.

Originality. For the first time, on the basis of analytical studies, it has been established that there is a close growing linear relationship between the number of natural disasters and number of technogenic emergency situations, which is described by the equation y = 1.3x + 18.34 (R² = 0.7763). For each negative situation of natural origin with a fairly high reliability, there is 1.3 negative event of technogenic origin.

Practical value. The results of the study can be used to develop forecasts and take appropriate decisions on the prevention and elimination of emergencies.

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ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

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