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Adequacy of measures to threats as one of the fundamental ­principles of safety riskology

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Category: Content №5 2024

Last Updated on 29 October 2024

Published on 30 November -0001

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Authors:

Z.Matsuk*, orcid.org/0000-0001-6114-9536, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.Belikov, orcid.org/0000-0001-5822-9682, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Protsiv, orcid.org/0000-0002-2269-4993, TAFE NSW (Technical and Further Education New South Wales) Liverpool College, Sydney, Australia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Severyn, orcid.org/0009-0002-4387-6494, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

V.Kharchenko, orcid.org/0000-0002-7653-3001, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, SEI “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, Dnipro, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

* Corresponding author е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

повний текст / full article

Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2024, (5): 099 - 106

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-5/099

Abstract:

Purpose. To justify the need to apply the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” as a measure to improve the risk management methodology, to prevent (counteract) existing and emerging risks (threats) to the security of complex systems.

Methodology. The well-known methodological principle called “Ockam’s Razor” was used. In the course of the research, a complex method was used, which included formal and logical analysis of normative and scientific and technical literature, analysis of statistical data, synthesis, abstraction, experiment, observation, generalization of data, description.

Findings. In the course of the research, one of the threats (danger, risk) was identified, which simultaneously affects the existence of such a system due to traffic safety of rolling stock of rail transport enterprises, and the full implementation of the system’s capabilities due to axle loads, mass and speed movement of rolling stock, level of operating costs, passenger flow, regularity of transportation, etc. Experimental application of the lubricant “Mariol NT” in SPP 12-5, GS-3 lubrication systems showed a decrease in wear intensity by 240 %. Due to the use of a new lubricating material applied to the friction surface of wheel rims as part of the paint coating, the wear intensity of flanges of twin-wheel rims is reduced by 2.2 times, and that of locomotives by 2.4 times.

Originality. It was determined that the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” as a measure of improvement of the risk management methodology, prevention (counteraction) of existing and prospective risks (threats, dangers) during the safety assessment of complex systems is currently not applied, but its consideration helps to prevent (countermeasures) to existing and emerging risks (threats) to the safety of complex systems.

Practical value. The use of the “principle of adequacy of probabilities” allows for the theoretical and experimental determination of the numerical value of the ratio between the probability of an event occurring, caused by the action of an identified threat that negatively affects the state (level) of safety and operability of system elements at all stages of its existence, and the probability of a positively compensatory effect of the developed countermeasure to the identified threat.

Keywords: rolling stock, lubricant, safety, risk, threat, probability

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