Forecasting of wear of pads of modernized brake system devices of bogies of freight cars using ARIMA models

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Authors:


V.H.Ravlyuk, orcid.org/0000-0003-4818-9482, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

S.V.Mykhalkiv, orcid.org/0000-0002-0425-6295, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A.V.Rybin, orcid.org/0000-0003-4430-8018, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ya.V.Derevianchuk, orcid.org/0000-0002-4932-2751, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport, Kharkiv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

O.A.Plakhtii, orcid.org/0000-0002-1535-8991, Ltd VO OVEN, Kharkiv, Ukraine, -mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


повний текст / full article



Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2020, (6): 048 - 054

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-6/048



Abstract:



Purpose.
The purpose is to create discrete stochastic ARIMA models for forecasting the remaining life of pads of modernized brake rigging (BR) devices of bogies of industrial railway cars.


Methodology.
Accounting of statistical data on the wear of pads of typical and modernized BR devices obtained in the relevant studies. On the basis of analytical designs of BR, changes in the junction of the vertical lever with the spacer are proposed. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria are used for selecting the optimal integrated autoregression and moving average model within the Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting the remaining mileage of pads.


Findings.
The ARIMA model was identified, evaluated, and checked for adequacy according to the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. It is established that abnormal wear of the top of the pads of typical BR devices due to a number of design and operational reasons occurs when the mileage is about 3.5 times less than the forecasted life before the abnormal wear of the top of the pads of modernized BR devices. The forecasted remaining life of the top of the pad of the modernized BR is 3.3 thousand km shorter than that for the bottom of the same pad.


Originality.
For the first time, the remaining life of the pads of the modernized BR devices of industrial freight cars was forecasted using discrete stochastic ARIMA models, which require only the availability of discrete values that are recorded during the relevant experimental measurements.


Practical value.
The results of the study were verified on experimental rolling stock with modernized devices in the brake systems of bogies. They can be used in the design, upgrade and operation of the brake systems of both the rolling stock which is currently in operation and the new generation of bogies of freight cars.


Keywords:
ARIMA model, freight car, wear, forecasting, brake pad, brake rigging

References.


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