Risk assessment in man-caused accidents

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V.F. Stoetsky, State Higher Educational Institution “National Mining University”, postgraduate student of the Department of Aerology and Labour Protection, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukrainе

V.I. Golinko, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Professor, State Higher Educational Institution “National Mining University”, Head of the Department of Aerology and Labour Protection, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukrainе

L.V. Dranishnikov, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Professor, Dneprodzerzhinsky State Technical University, Professor of the Department of Software Systems, Dneprodzerzhinsk, Ukraine


Purpose. Development of calculation methods for analysis and evaluation of risk of technology-related accidents at hazardous production facilities.

Methodology. For the analysis and evaluation of the risk of accidents the stochastic method of safety analysis using the failure tree was used.

Findings. Different methodological approaches to risk assessment were considered. The research showed that the forecasting techniques currently used in Ukraine can determine only the boundary zone of the threshold of defeat. We suggest the technique that allows for quantitative risk assessment, in particular, individual, territorial and social risks. We recommend using the estimates obtained for the declaration of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities of industrial safety and the development of recommendations for risk reduction.

Originality. The article provides scientific rationale of the calculation methods for the analysis and evaluation of the risk of technology-related accidents at hazardous production facilities. It differs from the previous ones by taking into account the nature of the accident during the determination of individual risk, determining the time of workers’ stay in a hazardous area and their location. This allows us to analyze and evaluate the individual, territorial and social risks caused by the release of toxic substances more precisely.

Practical value. Results of the analysis and evaluation of the accidents risk are used for substantiation of technical measures providing industrial safety.


1Методики оценки последствий химических аварий на опасных производственных объектах. Методика „Токси-2.2.“ Сборник документов. Изд. 2-е, испр. и доп. – М.: НТЦ по безопасности в промышленности и Госгортехнадзора России, 2002. –206 с.

Methods of Estimation of Consequences of Chemical Accidents at Dangerous Production Objects. The method of Toksi-2.2, (2002), Collection of Documents, Moscow, STC on the Safety of Industry and State Technical Inspection of Russia, 206 p.

2. Белов П.Г. Системный анализ и моделирование опасных процессов в техносфере / Белов П.Г. – М.: ACADEMA, 2003. – 505 с.

Belov, P.G. (2003),Sistemny analiz i modelirovanie opasnykh protsessov v tekhnosfere [System Analysis and Modeling of  Dangerous Processes in the Technical Sphere], ACADEMA, Moscow, Russia.

3. Управление техногенной безопасностью объектов повышенной опасности / [Стоецкий В.Ф., Дранишников Л.В., Есипенко А.Д. и др.] – Тернополь: «Изд-во Астон», 2006. – 424 с.

Stoetskii, V.F., Dranishnikov, L.V., Yesipenko, A.D., Zhartovskiy, V.M. andNayvert, A.V. (2006), Upravlenie tekhnogennoy bezopasnostyu obyektov povyshennoy opasnosti [Management of Technology-Related Safety of Objects of Increased Risk], Ternopol, Aston, Ukraine.

4. Методика прогнозування наслідків виливу (викиду) небезпечних хімічних речовин при аваріях на промислових об’єктах і транспорті. Затверджено спільним наказом МНС, Мінагрополітики, Мінекономіки, Мінекології України від 27.03.2001 №73/82/64/122.[Електронний ресурс]. – Режим доступу: http://www.mns.gov.ua.

Method of Forecasting of Consequences of Outpouring (Outburst) of Hazardous Chemical Substances from Chemical Accidents at Industrial Objects and Transport. Ratified by the General Order of the Emergency Control Ministry, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Economics, Ministry of Ecology of Ukraine from 27.03.2001 no.73/82/64/122. [Electronicresource]. ‑ AccessMode: http://www.mns.gov.ua.

5Мастрюков Б.С. Безопасность в чрезвычайных ситуациях / Мастрюков Б.С. – М.:Изд.центр „Академия“, 2003. – 336с.

Mastryukov, B.S. (2003), Bezopasnost v chrezvychaynykh situatsyyakh [Safety in Emergency Situations], Publ. center “Academia”, Moscow, Russia..

Date 2014-07-08 Filesize 408.7 KB Download 847


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ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.


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